Iron ore prices start the new week not so smoothly

Several factors are driving the price. China's blockades suggest that the situation will only get worse, and this sends a bleak message about the near-term consumption outlook for the world's largest steel producer. Overall, Beijing has once again announced - perhaps not coincidentally - that steel production across the country will fall again this year. Output in the first quarter was rather lackluster.

On the supply side, Rio Tinto, BHP and Vale - three of the top four miners - are sticking to their full-year production guidance even as supply declines in the first quarter. That means more tons of iron ore will be shipped by sea. Fortescue Metals - the remaining miner of the quartet - will provide more information when the report is released on Thursday.

Right now, the risk remains tilted to the downside.