Steel prices fall but high demand will compensate for steel enterprises

Specifically, statistics from VnDirect's 2022 steel market prospect strategy report show that China's steel bar and HRC prices have recently plummeted by 25% and 28%, respectively, compared to the peak in May of this year. This is due to the Chinese government's efforts to control domestic steel prices by eliminating export tax refunds on steel products and problems related to the real estate industry.

In the EU-US market, HRC prices also decreased by 23.5%-7.0%, respectively, to $1,116/ton-1,825-USD/ton since the peak at the end of July 2021.

During the period 2005-2019, world steel prices experienced three major price increases. With the characteristic of the steel industry that there is often excess capacity, an increase in steel prices will almost immediately stimulate manufacturers to increase output, leading to a price increase cycle that usually does not last more than 2 years.

During the most recent bull cycle, steel prices rose for about 1.5 years from March 2020 to September 2021. According to a November 2021 report by Fitch Solutions, the organization forecasts that global steel prices will fall from current highs to an average of $750/ton in 2022 and $535/ton in 2023- 2025 as steel demand for China's construction industry is expected to weaken in the period 2022-2025, a time when infrastructure construction projects gradually decline and risks increase in the country's real estate industry, this will cause the average global steel price to decrease.

According to world steel price movements, VnDirect forecasts that Vietnam's construction steel price will reach VND 15,500/kg in 2021, up 38% over the same period, before falling to VND 14,300/kg-13,600 VND/kg in in 2022-2023, down 8%-5% respectively over the same period.

Although steel prices fell, according to VnDirect, higher demand will compensate for lower output prices. According to data of the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), Vietnam's exports of construction steel and galvanized steel will reach 1.6 million-2.8 million tons respectively in the first 10 months of 2021, up 37%-112% compared to the same period last year. with the same period.

Notably, on November 15, the US President signed a $1.2 trillion investment package for infrastructure, marking the largest investment in US infrastructure since the Roads Act. Federal Aid Highway in 1956.

In which, projects with demand for steel mobilization include USD 110 billion for roads and key transport projects, USD 66 billion for railways, USD 39 billion for public transport and 7.5 billion USD for public transport. USD for electric cars. The American Iron and Steel Institute estimates that every $100 billion of new investment in infrastructure will increase domestic steel demand by 5 million tons.

The Indian government has also announced the launch of a $1.350 billion infrastructure investment plan in early August. This investment package will focus on boosting industrial production and economic growth with a focus on expanding transport infrastructure and using cleaner fuels.

VnDirect believes that world steel demand has increased significantly since the first quarter of 2021 when many countries have approved and accelerated the construction of infrastructure projects. This trend will continue at least until the end of the first half of 2022, thereby stimulating Vietnamese steel manufacturers to boost exports.

In addition, this securities company also believes that the promotion of infrastructure development and the warming of the residential real estate market will help Vietnam's construction steel consumption increase by 10-15%. compared to the same period in 2022. Meanwhile, Vietnam's galvanized steel consumption volume will increase slightly by 5% over the same period in 2022 from a high of 39% over the same period this year.

VnEconomy